The best dividends on the labor invested have invariably come from seeking more knowledge rather than more power.
— Wilbur Wright
Here is a hint; it’s not how we are approaching it today. The approach today is ultimately doomed to fail and potentially take a generation of progress wit it. We need to emphasize the true differentiating factors and embrace the actual sources of progress. Computer hardware is certainly a part of the success, but by no means the dominant factor in true progress. As a result we are starving key aspects of scientific computing from the intellectual lifeblood needed for advancing the state of the art. Even if we “win” following our current trajectory, the end result will be a loss because of the opportunity cost incurred in pursuing the path we are on today. Supercomputing is a holistic activity embedded in a broader scientific enterprise. As such it needs to fully embrace the scientific method and structure its approach more effectively.
The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
― George Bernard Shaw
The news of the Chinese success in solidifying their lead in supercomputer performance “shocked” the high performance-computing World a couple of weeks ago. To make things even more troubling to the United States, the Chinese achievement was accomplished with home grown hardware (a real testament to the USA’s export control law!). It comes as a blow to the American efforts to retake the lead in computing power. It wouldn’t matter if the USA or anyone else for that matter were doing things differently. Of course the subtext of the entire discussion around supercomputer speed is the supposition that raw computer power measures the broader capability in computing, which defines an important body of expertise for National economic and military security. A large part of winning in supercomputing is the degree to which this supposition is patently false. As falsehoods go, this is not ironclad and a matter of debate over lots of subtle details that I elaborated upon last week. The truth depends on how idiotic the discussion needs to be and one’s tolerance for subtle technical arguments. In today’s world arguments can only be simple, verging on moronic and technical discussions are suspect as a matter of course.
Instead of concentrating just on finding good answers to questions, it’s more important to learn how to find good questions!
― Donald E. Knuth
If you read that post you might guess the answer of how we might win the quest for supercomputing supremacy. In a sense we need to do a number of things better than today. First, we need to stop measuring computer power with meaningless and misleading benchmarks. These do nothing but damage the entire field by markedly skewing the overall articulation of both the successes, but also the challenges of building u
seful computers. Secondly, we need to invest our resources in the most effective areas for success these are modeling, methods and algorithms all of which are far greater sources of innovation and true performance for the accomplishment of modeling & simulation. The last thing is to change the focus of supercomputing to modeling & simulation because it is where the societal value of computing is delivered. If these three things were effectively executed upon victory would be assured to whomever made the choices. The option of taking more effective action is there for the taking.
Discovery consists of looking at the same thing as everyone else and thinking something different.
― Albert Szent-Györgyi
The first place to look for effort that might dramatically tilt the fortunes of supercomputing is modeling. Our models of the World are all wrong to some degree; they are all based on various limiting assumptions, and may be improved. None of these characteristics may be ameliorated by supercomputing power, or accuracy of discretization, nor algorithmic efficiency. Modeling limitations are utterly impervious to anything, but modeling improvement. The subtext to the entire discussion of supercomputing power is the supposition that our models today are completely adequate and only in need of faster computers to fully explain reality. This is an utterly specious point-of-view that basically offends the foundational principles of science itself. Modeling is the key to the understanding and irreplaceable in its power and scope to transform our capability.
And a step backward, after making a wrong turn, is a step in the right direction.
― Kurt Vonnegut
We might take a single example to illustrate the issues associated with modeling: gradient diffusion closures for turbulence. The diffusive closure of the fluid equations for the effects of turbulence is ubiquitous, useful and a dead end without evolution. It is truly a marvel of science going back to the work of Prantl’s mixing length theory. Virtually all the modeling of fluids done with supercomputing is reliant on its fundamental assumptions and intrinsic limitations. The only place where its reach does not extend to is the direct numerical simulation where the flows are computed without the aid of modeling, i.e., a priori (which for the purposes here I will take as a given although it actually needs a lot of conversation itself). All of this said, the ability of direct numerical simulation to answer our scientific and technical questions are limited because turbulence is such a vigorous and difficult multiscale problem that even an exascale computer cannot slay.
So let’s return to what we need to do to advance the serious business of turbulence modeling. In a broad sense one of the biggest limitations of diffusion as a subgrid closure is its inability to describe behavior that is not diffusive. While turbulence is a decisively dissipative phenomenon, it is not always and only dissipative locally. The diffusive subgrid closure makes this assumption and hence carries deep limitations. In key areas of a flow field the proper subgrid model is actually non-dissipative or even anti-dissipative. The problem is that diffusion is a very stable and simple way to model phenomena in many ways exaggerating its success. We need to develop non-diffusive models that extend the capacity to model flows not fully or well described by diffusive closure approaches.
Once a model is conceived of in theory we need to solve it. If the improved model cannot yield solutions, its utility is limited. Methods for computing solutions to models beyond the capability of analytical tools were the transformative aspect of modeling & simulation. Before this many models were only solvable in very limited cases through apply a number of even more limiting assumptions and simplifications. Beyond just solve the model; we need to solve it correctly, accurately and efficiently. This is where methods come in. Some models are nigh on impossible to solve, or entail connections and terms that evade tractability. Thus coming up with a method to solve the model is a necessary element in the success of computing. In the early years of scientific computing many methods came into use that tamed models into ease of use. Today’s work on methods has slowed to a crawl, and in a sense our methods development research are victims of their own success.
Arthur C. Clarke’s third law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
An example of this success is the nonlinear stabilization methods I’ve written about recently. These methods are the lifeblood of the success computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes have had. Without their invention the current turnkey utility of CFD codes would be unthinkable. Before their development CFD codes were far more art and far less science than today. Unfortunately, we have lost much of the appreciation for the power and scope of these methods. We have little understanding of what came before them and the full breadth of their magical powers. Before these methods came into the fore one was afforded the daunting task of choosing between an overly diffusive stable method (i.e., donor cell–upwind differencing) and a more accurate, but unphysically oscillatory method. These methods allowed on to have both and adaptively use whatever was necessary under the locally determined circumstances, but they can do much more. While their power to allow efficient solutions was absolutely immense, these methods actually opened doors to physically reasonable solutions to a host of problems. One could have both accuracy and physical admissibility in the same calculation.
This is where the tale turns back toward modeling. These methods actually provide some modeling capability for “free”. As such the modeling under the simplest circumstances is completely equivalent to the Prantl’s mixing layer approach, but with the added benefit of computability. More modern stabilized differencing actually provides modeling that goes beyond the simple diffusive closure. Because of the robust stability properties of the method one can compute solutions with backscatter stably. This stability is granted by the numerical approach, but provides the ability to solve the non-dissipative model with an asymptotic stability needed for physically admissible modeling. If one had devised a model with the right physical effect of local backscatter, these methods provide the stable implementation. In this way these methods are magical and make the seemingly impossible, possible.
This naturally takes us to the next activity in the chain of activities that add value to computing, algorithm development. This is the development of new algorithms that have greater efficiency to differentiate itself from the focus of algorithm work today, simply implementing old algorithms on the new computers, which comes down to dealing with the increasingly enormous amount of parallelism demanded. The sad thing is that no implementation can over come the power of algorithmic scaling, and this power is something we are systematically denying ourselves of. Indeed we have lost massive true gains in computational performance because of failure to invest in this area, and the inability to recognize the opportunity cost of a focus on implementing the old.
A useful place to look to in examining the sort of gains coming from algorithms is numerical linear algebra. The state of the art here comes from multigrid and it came into the fore over 30 years ago. Since then we have had no breakthroughs, when before a genuine breakthrough occurred about every decade. It is not coincidence 30 years ago is when parallel computing began its eventual takeover of high performance computing. Making multigrid or virtually any other “real” algorithm work at a massive parallel scale is very difficult, incredibly challenging work. This difficulty has swallowed up all the effort and energy in the system effectively starving the development of new algorithm invention out. What is the cost? We might understand the potential cost of these choices by looking back at what previous breakthroughs have gained.
We can look at the classical example of solving Poisson’s equation () on the unit square or cube to instruct us on how incredibly massive the algorithmic gains might be. The crossover point between a relaxation method (Gauss-Seidel, GS, or Jacobi) and an incomplete Cholesky conjugate gradient (ICCG) is at approximately 100 unknowns. For a multigrid algorithm the crossover point in cost occurs at around 1000 unknowns. Problems of 100 or 1000 unknowns can now be accomplished on something far less capable than a cell phone. For problems associated with supercomputers the differences in the cost of these different algorithms are utterly breathtaking to behold.

Consider a relatively small problem today of solving Poisson’s equation on a unit cube of 1000 unknowns in each direction ( unknowns). If we take the cost of multigrid as taking “one” the GS now takes ten million times more effort, and ICCG almost 1000 times the effort. Scale up the problem to something we might dream of doing on an exascale computer of a cube of 10,000 on a side with a trillion unknowns, and we easily see the tyranny of scaling and the opportunity of algorithmic breakthroughs we are denying ourselves of. For this larger problem, the GS now costs ten billion times the effort of multigrid, and ICCG is now 30,000 times the expense. Imagine the power of being able to solve something more efficiently than multigrid! Moreover multigrid can withstand incredible levels of inefficiency in its implementation and still win compared to the older algorithms. The truth is that parallel computing implementation drives the constant in front of the scaling up to a much larger value than a serial computer, so these gains are offset by the lousy hardware we have to work with.
Here is the punch line to this discussion. Algorithmic power is massive almost to a degree that defies belief. Yet algorithmic power is vanishingly small compared to methods, which itself is dwarfed by modeling. Modeling connects the whole simulation endeavor to the scientific method and is irreplaceable. Methods make these models solvable and open the doors of capability. All of these activities are receiving little tangible priority or support in the current high performance computing push resulting in the loss of incredible opportunities for societal benefit. Moreover we have placed our faith in the false hope that mere computing power is transformative.
Never underestimate the power of thought; it is the greatest path to discovery.
― Idowu Koyenikan
Both models and methods transcend the sort of gains computing hardware produces and can never replace. Algorithmic advances can be translated to the language of efficiency via scaling arguments, but provide gains that go far beyond hardware’s capacity for improvement. The problem is that all of these rely upon faith in humanities ability to innovate, think and produce things that had previously been beyond the imagination. This is an inherently risky endeavor that is prone to many failures or false hopes. This is something that today’s World seems to lack tolerance for, and as such the serendipity and marvel of discovery is scarified at the altar of fear.
We have to continually be jumping off cliffs and developing our wings on the way down.
― Kurt Vonnegut
The case for changing the focus of our current approach being airtight, and completely defensible. Despite the facts, the science and the benefits of following rational thinking there is precious little chance of seeing change. The global effort in supercomputing is utterly and completely devoted to the foolish hardware path. It wins by a combination of brutal simplicity, and eagerness to push money toward industry. So what we have is basically cash driven funeral pyre for Moore’s law. The risk-taking, innovation-driven approach necessary for success is seemingly beyond the capability of our society to execute today. The reasons why are hard to completely grasp, we have seemingly lost of nerve and taste for subtlety. Much of the case for doing the right things and those things that lead to success are bound to a change of mindset. Today the power, if not the value of computing are measured in the superficial form of hardware. The reality is that the power is bound to our ability to model, simulate and ultimately understand or harness reality. Instead we blindly put our faith in computing hardware instead of the intellectual strength of humanity.
The discussion gets to a number of misconceptions and inconsistencies that the field of supercomputing. The biggest issue is the disconnect between the needs of science and engineering and the success of supercomputing (i.e., what constitutes a win). Winning in supercomputing programs is tied to being able to put a (American) machine at the top of the list. Increasingly success at having the top computer on the increasingly useless Top500 list is completely at odds with acquiring machines useful for conducting science. A great deal of the uselessness of the list is the benchmark used to define its rankings, LINPAC, which is less relevant to applications every passing day. It has come to the point where it is hurting progress in a very real way.
The science and engineering needs are varied all the way from QCD, MD and DNS to climate modeling and integrated weapons calculations. The pure science needs of QCD, MD and DNS are better met by the machines being built today, but even in this idealized circumstance the machines we buy to top the computing list are fairly suboptimal for this pure science application. The degree of suboptimality for running our big integrated calculations has become absolutely massive over time and the gap is only growing larger with each passing year. Like most things, inattention to this condition is only allowing it to become worse. The machines being designed for winning the supercomputing contest are actual monstrosities that are genuinely unusable for scientific computing. Worse yet the execution of the exascale program is acting to make this worse in every way, not better.
We then increase the damaging execution of the supercomputing program is the systematic hollowing out of the science, and engineering content from our programs. We are systematically diminishing our efforts in experimentation, theory, modeling, and mathematics despite their greater importance and impact on the entire enterprise. The end result will be a lost generation of computational scientists who are left using computers completely ill-suited to the conduct of science. If National security is a concern, the damage we are doing is real and vast in scope.
We need supercomputing to be a fully complimentary part of the scientific enterprise used and relied upon only as appropriate with limits rationally chosen based on evidence. Instead we have created supercomputing as a prop and marketing stunt. There is a certain political correctness about how it contributes to our national security, and our increasingly compliant Labs offer no resistance to the misuse of the taxpayer money. The mantra is “don’t rock the boat,” we are getting money to do this. Whether or not it’s sensible or not is immaterial. The current programs are ineffective and poorly executed and do a poor job of providing the sorts of capability claimed. It is yet another example of and evidence of the culture of bullshit and pseudo-science that pervades our modern condition.
The biggest issue is the death of Moore’s law and our impending failure to produce the results promised. Rather than reform our programs to achieve real benefits for science and national security, we will see a catastrophic failure. This will be viewed through the usual lens of scandal. It is totally foreseeable and predictable. It would be advisable to fix this before disaster, but my guess is we don’t have the intellect, foresight, bravery or leadership to pull this off. The end is in sight and it won’t be pretty. Instead there is a different path that would be as glorious and successful. Does anyone have the ability to turn away from the disastrous path and consciously choose success?
An expert is someone who knows some of the worst mistakes that can be made in his subject, and how to avoid them.
― Werner Heisenberg
Some Background reading on the Top500 list and benchmarks that define it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOP500
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HPCG_benchmark
A sample of prior posts on topics related to this one:
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2016/01/01/are-we-really-modernizing-our-codes/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/10/16/whats-the-point-of-all-this-stuff/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/07/24/its-really-important-to-have-the-fastest-computer/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/07/03/modeling-issues-for-exascale-computation/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/06/05/the-best-computer/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/focusing-on-the-right-scaling-is-essential/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/03/06/science-requires-that-modeling-be-challenged/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/02/14/not-all-algorithm-research-is-created-equal/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/02/02/why-havent-models-of-reality-changed-more/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/01/05/what-is-the-essence-of-computational-science/
https://williamjrider.wordpress.com/2015/01/01/2015-time-for-a-new-era-in-scientific-computing/
eek was full of the USA’s continued losing streak to Chinese supercomputers. Their degree of supremacy is only growing and now the Chinese have more machines on the list of top high performance computers than the USA. Perhaps as importantly the Chinese didn’t relied on homegrown computer hardware rather than on the USA’s. One could argue that American export law cost them money, but also encouraged them to build their own. So is this a failure or success of the policy, or a bit of both. Rather than panic, maybe its time to admit that it doesn’t really matter. Rather than offer a lot of concern we should start a discussion about how meaningful it actually is. If the truth is told it isn’t very important at all.
If we too aggressively pursue regaining the summit of this list we may damage the part of supercomputing that actually does matter. Furthermore what we aren’t discussing is the relative positions of the Chinese to the Americans (or the Europeans for that matter) in the part of computing that does matter: modeling & simulation. Modeling and simulation is the real reason we do computing and the value in it is not measured or defined by computing hardware. Granted that computer hardware plays a significant role in the overall capacity to conduct simulations, but is not even the dominant player in modeling effectiveness. Worse yet, in the process of throwing all our effort behind getting the fastest hardware, we are systematically undermining the parts of supercomputing that add real value and have far greater importance. Underlying this assessment is the conclusion that our current policy isn’t based on what is important and supports a focus on less important aspects of the field that simply are more explicable to lay people.
We have set about a serious program to recapture the supercomputing throne. In its wake we will do untold amounts of damage to the future of modeling & simulation. We are in the process of spending huge sums of money chasing a summit that does not matter at all. In the process we will starve the very efforts that could allow us to unleash the full power of the science and engineering capability we should be striving for. A capability that would have massively positive impacts on all of the things supercomputing is supposed to contribute toward. The entire situation is patently absurd, and tragic. It is ironic that those who act to promote high performance computing are killing it. They are killing it because they fail to understand it or how science actually works.
The single most important thing in modeling & simulation is the nature of the model itself. The model contains the entirety of the capacity of the rest of the simulation to reproduce reality. In looking at HPC today any effort to improve models is utterly and completely lacking. Next in importance are the methods that solve those models, and again we see no effort at all in developing better methods. Next we have algorithms whose character determines the efficiency of solution, and again the efforts to improve this character are completely absent. With algorithms we start to see some effort, but only in the service of implementing existing ones on the new computers. Next in importance comes code and system software and here we see significant effort. The effort is to move old codes onto new computers, and produce software systems that unveil the power of new computers to some utility. Last and furthest from importance is the hardware. Here, we see the greatest degree of focus. In the final analysis we see the greatest focus, money and energy on those things that matter least. It is the makings of a complete disaster, and a disaster of our own making.
It is time to focus our collective creative and innovative energy where opportunity exists. For example, the arena of algorithmic innovation has been a more fertile and productive route to improving the performance of modeling& simulation than hardware. The evidence for this source of progress is vast and varied; I’ve written on it on several occasions (
All of this gets at a far more widespread and dangerous societal issue; we are incapable of dealing with any issue that is complex and technical. Increasingly we have no tolerance for anything where expert judgment is necessary. Science and scientists are increasingly being dismissed when their messaging is unpleasant or difficult to take. Examples abound with last week’s Brexit easily coming to mind, and climate change providing an ongoing example of willful ignorance. Talking about how well we or anyone else does modeling & simulation is subtle and technical. As everyone should be well aware subtle and technical arguments and discussions are not possible in the public sphere. As a result we are left with horrifically superficial measures such as raw supercomputing power as measured by a meaningless, but accepted benchmark. The result is a harvest of immense damage to actual capability and investment in a strategy that does very little to improve matters. We are left with a hopelessly ineffective high performance-computing program that wastes sums of money; entire careers and will in all likelihood result in a real loss of National supremacy in modeling & simulation.
A key part of the first generation’s methods success was the systematic justification for the form of limiters via a deep mathematical theory. This was introduced by Ami Harten with his total variation diminishing (TVD) methods. This nice structure for limiters and proofs of the non-oscillatory property really allowed these methods to take off. To amp things up even more, Sweby did some analysis and introduced a handy diagram to visualize the limiter and determine simply whether it fit the bill for being a monotone limiter. The theory builds upon some earlier work of Harten that showed how upwind methods provided a systematic basis for reliable computation through vanishing viscosity.
he TVD and monotonicity-preserving methods while reliable and tunable through these functional relations have serious shortcomings. These methods have serious limitations in accuracy especially near detailed features in solutions. These detailed structures are significantly degraded because the methods based on these principles are only first-order accurate in these areas basically being upwind differencing. In mathematical terms this means that the solution are first-order in the L-infinity norm, approximately one-and-a-half in the L-2 (energy) norm and second-order in the L1 norm. The L1 norm is natural for shocks so it isn’t a complete disaster. While this class of method is vastly better than their linear predecessors effectively providing solutions completely impossible before, the methods are imperfect. The desire is to remove the accuracy limitations of these methods especially to avoid degradation of features in the solution.
A big part of understanding the issues with ENO comes down to how the method works. The approximation is made through hierarchically selecting the smoothest approximation (in some sense) for each order and working ones way to high-order. In this way the selection of the second-order term is dependent on the first-order term, and the third-order term is dependent on the selected second-order term, the fourth-order term on the third-order one,… This makes the ENO method subject to small variations in the data, and prey to pathological data. For example the data could be chosen so that the linearly unstable stencil is preferentially chosen leading to nasty solutions. The safety of the relatively smooth and dissipative method makes up for these dangers. Still these problems resulted in the creation of the weighted ENO (WENO) methods that have basically replaced ENO for all intents and purposes.
WENO gets rid of the biggest issues with ENO by making the approximation much less sensitive to small variations in the data, and biasing the selection toward more numerically stable approximations. Moreover the solution to these issues allows for an even higher order approximation to be used if the solution is smooth enough to allow this. Part of the issue is the nature of ENO’s approach to approximation. ENO is focused on diminishing the dissipation at extrema, but systematically creates lower fidelity approximations everywhere else. If one looks at TVD approximations the “limiters” have a lot of room for non-oscillatory solutions if the solution is locally monotone. This is part of the power of these methods allowing great fidelity in regions away from extrema. By not capitalizing on this foundation, the ENO methods failed to build on the TVD foundation successfully. WENO methods come closer, but still produce far too much dissipation and too little fidelity to fully replace monotonicity-preservation in practical calculations. Nonetheless ENO and WENO methods are pragmatically and empirically known to be nonlinearly stable methods.
Given the lack of success of the second generation of methods, we have a great need for a third generation of nonlinear methods that might displace the TVD methods. Part of the issue with the ENO methods is the lack of a strict set of constraints to guide the development of the methods. While WENO methods also lack such constraints, they do have a framework that allows for design through the construction of the smoothness sensors, which help to determine the weights of the scheme. It allows for a lot of creativity, but the basic framework still leads to too much loss of fidelity compared to TVD methods. When one measures the accuracy of real solutions to practical problems WENO still has difficulty being competitive with TVD–don’t fooled by comparisons that show WENO being vastly better than TVD, the TVD method chosen to compare with is absolute shit. A good TVD method is very competitive, so the comparison is frankly disingenuous. For this reason something better is needed or progress will continue to stall.
The median is what a lot of people think of when you say “household income”. It is a statistical measure of central tendency of data that is a harder to compute alternative to the friendly common mean value. For large data sets the median is tedious and difficult to compute while the mean is straightforward and easy. The median is the middle entry of the ordered list of numerical data thus the data being studied needs to be ordered, which is hard and expensive to perform. The mean of the data is simple to compute. On the other hand by almost any rational measure, the median is better than the mean. For one thing, the median is not easily corrupted by any outliers in the data (data that is inconsistent or corrupted); it quite effectively ignores them. The same outliers immediately and completely corrupt the mean. The median is strongly associated with the one-norm, which is completely awesome and magical.
This connection is explored through the amazing and useful field of compressed sensing, which uses the one norm to do some really sweet (cool, awesome, spectacular, …) stuff.
The same basic recipe of bounding allows the parabolic limiter for the PPM method to be expressed quite concisely and clearly. The classic version of the PPM limiter involves “if” statements and seems rather unintuitive. With the median it is very clear and concise. The first simply assures that the chosen (high-order) edge values,
This produced a concept of producing nonlinear schemes that I originally defined as a “playoff” system. The best accurate and stable approximation would be the champion of the playoffs and would inherit the properties of the set of schemes used to construct the playoff. This would work as long as the playoff was properly orchestrated to produce stable and high-order approximations in a careful manner if the median were used to settle the competition. I had discussed this as a way to produce better ENO-like schemes. Perhaps I should have taken the biological analogy in the definition of the scheme in terms of what sort of offspring each decision point in the scheme bred. Here the median is used to breed the schemes and produce more fit offspring. The goal at the end of scheme is to produce an approximation with a well-chosen order of accuracy and stability that can be proven.
One of the most important things about modern computational methods is their nonlinear approach to solving problems. These methods are easily far more important to the utility of modeling and simulation in the modern world than high performance computing. The sad thing is that little or no effort is going into extending and improving these approaches despite the evidence of their primacy. Our current investments in hardware are unlikely to yield much improvement whereas these methods were utterly revolutionary in their impact. The lack of perspective regarding this reality is leading to vast investment in computing technology that will provide minimal returns.
that have powered computational physics into a powerful technology. Without these methods we would not have the capacity to reliably simulate many scientifically interesting and important problems, or utilize simulation in the conduct of engineering. The epitome of modeling and simulation success is computational fluid dynamics (CFD) where these nonlinear methods have provided the robust stability and stunning results capturing imaginations. In CFD these methods were utterly game changing and the success of the entire field is predicated on their power. The key to this power is poorly understood, and too often credited to computing hardware instead of the real source of progress: models, methods and algorithms with the use of nonlinear discretizations being primal.
Next in our tour of basic foundational theorems is Godunov’s theorem, which tells us a lot about what is needed. In its original form it’s a bit of a downer, you can’t have a linear method be higher than first-order accurate and non-oscillatory (monotonicity preserving). The key concept is to turn the barrier on its head, you can have a nonlinear method be higher than first-order accurate and non-oscillatory. This is then the instigation for the topic of this post, the need and power of nonlinear methods. I’ll posit the idea that the concept may actually go beyond hyperbolic equations, but the whole concept of nonlinear discretizations is primarily applied to hyperbolic equations.
A few more theorems help to flesh out the basic principles we bring to bear. A key result is the theorem of Lax and Wendroff that shows the value of discrete conservation. If one has conservation then you can show that you are achieving weak solutions. This must be combined with picking the right weak solution, as there are actually infinitely many weak solutions, all of them wrong save one. The task of getting the right weak solution is produced with sufficient dissipation, which produces entropy. Key results are due to Osher who attached the character of (approximate) Riemann solvers to the production of sufficient dissipation to insure physically relevant solutions. As we will describe there are other means to introducing dissipation aside from Riemann solvers, but these lack some degree of theoretical support unless we can tie them directly to the Riemann problem. Of course most of us want physically relevant solutions although lots of mathematicians act like this is not a primal concern! There is a vast phalanx of other 
theorems of practical interest, but I will end this survey with a last one by Osher and Majda with lots of practical import. Simply stated this theorem limits the numerical accuracy we can achieve in regions affected by a discontinuous solution to first-order accuracy. The impacted region is bounded by the characteristics emanating from the discontinuity. This puts a damper on the zeal for formally high order accurate methods, which needs to be considered in the context of this theorem.
Let’s return to the idea of limiters and act to dissuade the common view of limiters and their intrinsic connection to dissipation. The connection there is real, but less direct than commonly acknowledged. A limiter is really a means of stencil selection in an adaptive manner separate from dissipation. They may be combined, but usually not with good comprehension of the consequences. Another way to view the limiter is a way of selecting the appropriate bias in the stencil used to difference an equation based upon the application of a principle. The principle most often used for limiting is some sort of boundedness in the representation, which may equivalently be associated with selecting a smoother (nicer) neighborhood to execute the discretization on. The way an equation is differenced certainly impacts the nature and need for dissipation in the solution, but it is indirect. Put differently, the amount of dissipation needed with the application of a limiter varies both with the limiter itself, but also with the dissipation mechanism, but the two are independent. This does get into the whole difference between flux limiters and geometric limiters, a topic worth some digestion.
approach separates these effects into independent steps. The geometric approach puts bounds on the variables being solved, and then relies on an agnostic approach to the variables for stabilization in the form of a Riemann solver. Both approaches are successful in solving complex systems of equations and have their rabid adherents (I favor the reconstruct-Riemann approach). The flux form can be quite effective and produces better extensions to multiple dimensions, but can also involve heavy-handed dissipation mechanisms.
The first stabilization of numerical methods was found with the original artificial viscosity (developed by Robert Richtmyer to stabilize and make useful John Von Neumann’s numerical method for shock waves). The name “artificial viscosity” is vastly unfortunate because the dissipation is utterly physical. Without its presence the basic numerical method was utterly and completely useless leading to a catastrophic instability (almost certainly helped instigate the investigation of numerical stability along with instability in integrating parabolic equations). Physically most interesting nonlinear systems produce dissipation even in the limit where the explicit dissipation can be regarded as vanishingly small. This is true for shock waves and turbulence where the dissipation in the inviscid limit has
remarkably similar forms structurally. Given this basic need, the application of some sort of stabilization is an absolute necessity to produce meaningful results both from a purely numerical respect and the implicit connection to the physical World. I’ve written recently on the use of hyperviscosity as yet another mechanism for producing dissipation. Here the artificial viscosity is the archetype of hyperviscosity and its simplest form. As I’ve mentioned before the original turbulent subgrid model was also based directly upon the artificial viscosity devised by Richtmyer (often misattributed to Von Neumann although their collaboration clearly was important).
mind and a two way street.
It is actually worse than simply being a problem that the best effort isn’t put forth, lack of acceptance of failure inhibits success. The outright acceptance of failure as a viable outcome of work is necessary for the sort of success one can have pride in. If nothing is risked enough to potentially fail than nothing can be achieved. Today we have accepted the absence of failure as being the tell tale sign of success. It is not. This connection is desperately unhealthy and leads to a diminishing return on effort. Potential failure while an unpleasant prospect is absolutely necessary for achievement. As such the failures when best effort is put forth should be celebrated and lauded whenever possible and encouraged. Instead we have a culture that crucifies those who fail with regard for the effort on excellence of the work going into it.
In the area of security, the lack of tolerance for bad events is immense. More than this, the pervasive security apparatus produces a side effect that greatly empowers things like terrorism. Terror’s greatest weapon is not high explosives, but fear and we go out of our way to do terrorists jobs for them. Instead of tamping down fears our government and politicians go out of their way to scare the shit out of the public. This allows them to gain power and fund more activities to answer the security concerns of the scared shitless public. The best way to get rid of terror is to stop getting scared. The greatest weapon against terror is bravery, not bombs. A fearless public cannot be terrorized.
The end result of all of this risk intolerance is a lack of achievement as individuals, organizations, or the society itself. Without the acceptance of failure, we relegate ourselves to a complete lack of achievement. Without the ability to risk greatly we lack the ability to achieve greatly. Risk, danger and failure all improve our lives in every respect. The dial is too turned away from accepting risk to allow us to be part of progress. All of us will live poorer lives with less knowledge, achievement and experience because of the attitudes that exist today. The deeper issue is that the lack of appetite for obvious risks and failure actually kicks the door open for even greater risks and more massive failures in the long run. These sorts of outcomes may already be upon us in terms of massive opportunity cost. Terrorism is something that has cost our society vast sums of money and undermined the full breadth of society. We should have had astronauts on Mars already, yet the reality of this is decades away, so our societal achievement is actually deeply pathetic. The gap between “what could be” and “what is” has grown into a yawning chasm. Somebody needs to lead with bravery and pragmatically take the leap over the edge to fill it.
In the constellation of numerical analysis theorems the Lax equivalence theorem may have no equals in its importance. It is simple and its impact is profound on the whole business of numerical approximations. The theorem basically implies that if you provide a consistent approximation to the differential equations of interest and it is stable, the solution will converge. The devil of course is in the details. Consistency is defined by having an approximation with ordered errors in the mesh or time discretization, which implies that the approximation is at least first-order accurate, if not better. A key aspect of this that is overlooked is the necessity to have mesh spacing sufficiently small to achieve the defined error where failure to do so renders the solution erratically convergent at best.
Stability then becomes the issue where you must assure that the approximations produce bounded results under the appropriate control of the solution. Usually the stability is defined as a character of the time stepping approach and requires that the time step be sufficiently small to provide stability. A lesser-known equivalence theorem is due to Dahlquist and applies to integrating ordinary differential equations and applies to multistep methods. From this work the whole aspect of zero stability arises where you have to assure that a non-zero time step size gives stability in the first place. More deeply, Dahlquist’s version of the equivalence theorem applies to nonlinear equations, but is limited to multistep methods where as Lax’s applies to linear equations.
rem doesn’t formally apply to the nonlinear case the guidance is remarkably powerful and appropriate. We have a simple and limited theorem that produces incredible consequences for any approximation methodology that we are applying to partial differential equations. Moreover the whole this was derived in the early 1950’s and generally thought through even earlier. The theorem came to pass because we knew that approximations to PDEs and their solution on computers do work. Dahlquist’s work is founded on a similar path; the availability of the computers shows us what the possibilities are and the issues that must be elucidated. We do see a virtuous cycle where the availability of computing capability spurs on developments in theory. This is an important aspect of healthy science where different aspects of a given field push and pull each other. Today we are counting on hardware advances to push the field forward. We should be careful that our focus is set where advances are ripe, its my opinion that hardware isn’t it.
One of the very large topics in V&V that is generally overlooked is models and their range of validity. All models are limited in terms of their range of applicability based on time and length scales. For some phenomena this is relatively obvious, e.g., multiphase flow. For other phenomena the range of applicability is much more subtle. Among the first important topics to examine is the satisfaction of the continuum hypothesis, the capacity of a homogenization or averaging to be representative. The degree of satisfaction of homogenization is dependent on the scale of the problem and degrades as phenomenon becomes smaller scale. For multiphase flow this is obvious as the example of bubbly flow shows. As the number of bubbles becomes smaller any averaging becomes highly problematic. It argues that the models should be modified in some fashion to account for the change in scale size.
Another more pernicious and difficult issues are homogenization assumptions that are not so fundamental. Consider the situation where a solid is being modeled in a continuum fashion. When the mesh is very large, the solid comprised of discrete grains can be modeled by averaging over these grains because there are so many of them. Over time we are able to solve problems with smaller and smaller mesh scales. Ultimately we now solve problems where the mesh size approaches the grain size. Clearly under this circumstance the homogenization used for averaging will lose its validity. The structural variations in the homogenized equations are removed and should become substantial and not be ignored as the mesh size becomes small. In the quest for exascale computing this issue is completely and utterly ignored. Some areas of study for high performance computing consider these issues carefully most notably climate and weather modeling where the mesh size issues are rather glaring. I would note that these fields are subjected to continual and rather public validation.
The theorem is applied to the convergence of the model’s solution in the limit where the “mesh” spacing goes to zero. Models are always limited in their applicability as a function of length and time scale. The equivalence theorem will be applied and take many models outside their true applicability. An important thing to wrangle in the grand scheme of things is whether models are being solved and convergent in the actual range of scales where it is applicable. A true tragedy would be a model that is only accurate and convergent in regimes where it is not applicable. This may actually be the case in many cases most notably the aforementioned multiphase flow. This calls into question the nature of the modeling and numerical methods used to solve the equations.
WTF has become the catchphrase for today’s world. “What the fuck” moments fill our days and nothing is more WTF than Donald Trump. We will be examining the viability of the reality show star, and general douchebag celebrity-rich guy as a viable presidential candidate for decades to come. Some view his success as a candidate apocalyptically, or characterize it as an “extinction level event” politically. In the current light it would seem to be a stunning indictment of our modern society. How could this happen? How could we have come to this moment as a nation where it is even a possibility for such a completely insane outcome to be a reasonably high probability outcome of our political process? What else does it say about us as a people? WTF? What in the actual fuck!
The phrase “what the fuck” came into the popular lexicon along with Tom Cruz in the movie, “Risky Business” back in 1983. There the lead character played by Tom Cruz exclaims, “sometimes you gotta say, what the fuck” It was a mantra for just going for broke and trying stuff without obvious regard for the consequences. Given our general lack of an appetite for risk and failure, the other side of the coin took the phrase over. Over time the phrase has morphed into a general commentary about things that are generally unbelievable. Accordingly the acronym WTF came into being by 1985. I hope that 2016 is peak-what the fuck, cause things can’t get much more what the fuck without everything turning into a complete shitshow. Going to a deeper view of things the real story behind where we are is the victory of bullshit as a narrative element in society. In a sense the transfer of WTF from a mantra for risk taking has transmogrified into a mantra for the breadth of impact of not taking risks!
It is the general victory of showmanship and entertainment. The superficial and bombastic rule the day. I think that Trump is committing one of the greatest frauds of all time. He is completely and utterly unfit for office, yet has a reasonable (or perhaps unreasonable) chance to win the election. The fraud is being committed in plain sight and the fact that he speaks falsehoods at a marvelously high rate without any of the normative ill effects. Trump’s victory is testimony to how gullible the public is to complete bullshit. This gullibility reflects the lack of will on the part of the public to address real issues. With the sort of “leadership” that Trump represents, the ability to address real problems will further erode. The big irony is that Trump’s mantra of “Make America Great Again” is the direct opposite impact of his message. Trump’s sort of leadership destroys the capacity of the Nation to solve the sort of problems that lead to actual greatness. He is hastening the decline of the United States by choking our will to act in a tidal wave of bullshit.
There is a lot more bullshit in society than just Trump; he is just the most obvious example right now. Those who master bullshit win the day today, and it drives the depth of the WTF moments. Fundamentally there are forces in society today that are driving us toward the sorts of outcomes that cause us to think, “WTF?” For example we are prioritizing a high degree of micromanagement over achievement due to the risks associated with giving people freedom. Freedom encourages achievement, but also carries the risk of scandal when people abuse their freedom. Without the risks you cannot have the achievements. Today the priority is no scandal and accomplishment simply isn’t important enough to empower anyone. We are developing systems of management that serve to disempower people so that they don’t do anything unpredictable (like achieve something!).
I wonder deeply about the extent to which things like the Internet play into this dynamic. Does the Internet allow bullshit to be presented with equality to bona fide facts? Does the Internet and computers allow a degree of micromanagement that strangles achievement? Does the Internet produce new patterns in society that we don’t understand much less have the capacity to manage? What is the value of information if it can’t be managed or understood in any way that is beyond superficial? The real danger is that people will gravitate toward what they want to view as facts instead of confronting issues that are unpleasant. The danger seems to be playing out in the political events in the United States and beyond.
happening faster and it is lubricating changes to take effect at a high pace. On the one hand we have an incredible ability to communicate with people that is beyond the capacity to even imagine a generation ago. The same communication mechanisms produces a deluge of information we are drowning and input to a degree that is choking people’s capacity to process what they are being fed. What good is the information, if the people receiving it are unable to comprehend it sufficiently to take action? or if people are unable to distinguish the proper actionable information from the complete garbage?
All of these forces are increasingly driving the elites in society (and increasingly the elites are simply those who have a modicum of education) to look at events and say “WTF?” I mean what the actual fuck is going on? The movie Idiocracy was set 500 years in the future, and yet we seem to be moving toward that vision of the future at an accelerated path that makes anyone educated enough to see what is happening tremble with fear. The sort of complete societal shitshow in the movie seems to be unfolding in front of our very eyes today. The mind-numbing effects of reality show television and pervasive low-brow entertainment is spreading like a plague. Donald Trump is the most obvious evidence of how bad things have gotten.
The sort of terrible outcomes we see obviously through our broken political discourse are happening across society. The scientific world I work in is no different. The low-brow and superficial are dominating the dialog. Our programs are dominated by strangling micromanagement that operates in the name of accountability, but really speaks volumes about the lack of trust. Furthermore the low-brow dialog simply reflects the societal desire to eliminate the technical elites from the process. This also connects back to the micromanagement because the elites can’t be trusted either. It’s become better to speak to the uneducated common man who you can “have a beer with” than trust the gibberish coming from an elite. As a result the rise of complete bullshit as technical achievements has occurred. When the people in charge can’t distinguish between Nobel Prize winning work and complete pseudo-science, the low-bar wins out. Those of us who know better are left with nothing to do but say What the Fuck? Over and over again.

Effectively we are creating an ecosystem where the apex predators are missing, and this isn’t a good thing. The models we use in science are the key to everything. They are the translation of our understanding into mathematics that we can solve and manipulate to explore our collective reality. Computers allow us to solve much more elaborate models than otherwise possible, but little else. The core of the value in scientific computing are the capacity of the models to explain and examine the physical World we live in. They are the “apex predators” in the scientific computing system, and taking this analogy further our models are becoming virtual dinosaurs where evolution has ceased to take place. The models in our codes are becoming a set of fossilized skeletons and not at all alive, evolving and growing.
People do not seem to understand that faulty models render the entirety of the computing exercise moot. Yes, the computational results may be rendered into exciting and eye-catching pictures suitable for entertaining and enchanting various non-experts including congressmen, generals, business leaders and the general public. These eye-catching pictures are getting better all the time and now form the basis of a lot of the special effects in the movies. All of this does nothing for how well the models capture reality. The deepest truth is that no amount of computer power, numerical accuracy, mesh refinement, or computational speed can rescue a model that is incorrect. The entire process of validation against observations made in reality must be applied to determine if models are correct. HPC does little to solve this problem. If the validation provides evidence that the model is wrong and a more complex model is needed then HPC can provide a tool to solve it.
seamlessly to produce incredible things. We have immensely complex machines that produce important outcomes in the real world through a set of interweaved systems that translate electrical signals into instructions understood by the computer and humans, into discrete equations, solved by mathematical procedures that describe the real world and ultimately compared with measured quantities in systems we care about. If we look at our focus today, the complexity of focus is the part of the technology that connects very elaborate complex computers to the instructions understood both by computers and people. This is electrical engineering and computer science. The focus begins to dampen in the part of the system where the mathematics, physics and reality comes in. These activities form the bond between the computer and reality. These activities are not a priority, and conspicuously diminished significantly by today’s HPC.
HPC today is structured in a manner to eviscerate fields that have been essential to the success of scientific computing. A good example is our applied mathematics programs. In many cases applied mathematics has become little more than scientific programming and code development. Far too little actual mathematics is happening today, and far too much focus is seen in productizing mathematics in software. Many people with training in applied mathematics only do software development today and spend little or no effort in doing analysis and development away from their keyboards. It isn’t that software development isn’t important, the issue is the lack of balance in the overall ratio of mathematics to software. The power and beauty of applied mathematics must be harnessed to achieve success in modeling and simulation. Today we are simply bypassing
this essential part of the problem to focus on delivering software products.